麻豆果冻传媒

Conclusion: Soleimani鈥檚 Legacy and What it Means for the Future of Proxy Warfare

Paramilitary groups like the Fatemiyoun have sought to stress that they could continue the path of Soleimani's legend following his death. The Fatemiyoun and the Islamic Republic have stressed the bond between Fatemiyoun and Soleimani, affectionately known as the "commander of hearts," because of his perceived ability to win over hearts and minds.1

Yet, Soleimani as a cultural and political icon is irreplaceable. The circumstances that led to his legend, starting from the Iraq war, Syria, and the war in Iraq against the Islamic State cannot be replicated. This helps explain why Islamic Republic officials have sought to reassure their followers and warn adversaries that the Quds Force would continue in Soleimani's path.2 In the order appointing former Deputy Commander Esmail Ghaani as the force chief, Khamenei declared that Soleimani's path must proceed.3 While the Islamic Republic and its myriad factions and organizations have wrangled over Soleimani's legacy, there was a general consensus within the system about how to respond to Soleimani's death, a term coined harsh revenge.4

Leading up to and after Iran鈥檚 retaliatory missile strike against U.S. forces in Iraq, IRGC commanders and officials gave different ideas of how to fulfill that revenge, such as a sustained asymmetric campaign against U.S. forces in the Middle East. Eventually, Tehran agreed on launching missile launches against U.S. forces in Iraq's Ayn al-Assad, which resulted in no fatalities but dozens of traumatic brain injuries. Iranian propaganda said that dozens and even over a hundred U.S. forces were killed.5 That was meant to provide cover for an option that, at least compared to other options, minimized the risk of U.S. retaliation while saving face.

Sometime after Soleimani's death, the unnamed commander of the Fatemiyoun defined what it means for the Fatemiyoun to continue Soleimani鈥檚 path. Speaking at a commemoration ceremony in Kerman, Iran, the commander called the formations of paramilitary groups Soleimani's largest legacy, and that he left the groups' management to the people.6 The commander said that Soleimani, on the day of his death, convened a meeting in Syria in which he invited the leaders of IRGC-led groups there. He laid out a five-year plan for the Fatemiyoun, that "may be his last will," but the Fatemiyoun commander did not discuss the details of that. The commander also said that the Fatemiyoun would exact vengeance by driving the United States from areas like Afghanistan. While that was probably posturing for the moment and the United States will exit Afghanistan in 2021, it does underscore the probability of Fatemiyoun deployment into Afghanistan.

The Fatemiyoun's commemoration of Soleimani has reflected that of the Islamic Republic and other paramilitary groups, projecting a narrative that Soleimani led a unified transnational Shiite-Islamist force. At the same time, Soleimani and Fatemiyoun had a strong bond. The group and Iranian officials have credited Soleimani with establishing the group and forming a strong bond with fighters. Ali Shirazi, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Quds Force who also acts as the force's chief ideologue, said during an interview that Soleimani loved the Fatemiyoun and other groups.7

The Fatemiyoun have participated in major ceremonies commemorating Soleimani, for instance, a prayer station near Khomeyni's Mausoleum in Tehran on the 40th day of Soleimani's death, which in Shiism is a significant milestone.8 The Fatemiyoun said that the station was reminiscent of prayer stations held during Ashura ceremonies, further stressing the spiritual and religious nature of the event. He then said that Soleimani's formation of the Fatmeiyoun drove a cultural shift in Iranian society, improving the "dignity" of Afghans in their eyes.

Since Soleimani's death, the Fatemiyoun have reiterated their oaths to the revolution, participated in a revolution anniversary march, and reiterated their commitments to fighting Israel. The new IRGC chief commander Hossein Salami has paid attention to the Fatemiyoun, releasing a statement addressed to the group on the anniversary of the death of Tavassoli in February 2020.9 IRGC Khatam ol-Anbiya Construction Base, the Guard's engineering arm, has announced the construction of a tailoring factory to help create jobs for the Fatemiyoun鈥檚 families.10

The recruitment and deployment of thousands of Afghan paramilitaries at the knife鈥檚 edge of Iran鈥檚 proxy wars by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) represents a watershed moment in the evolution of Tehran鈥檚 information warfare capabilities. Fatemiyoun fighters were the first forces to be deployed by Tehran at the peak of the age of militarized online astroturfing, and the IRGC has accordingly used social media to build and grow the Fatemiyoun brand online. Along the way, Iranian-financed propaganda about Afghan foreign fighters in Syria and Tehran鈥檚 support to Fatemiyoun鈥檚 media center and cultural affairs unit has played a vital role in making the IRGC鈥檚 proxy strategy a success. The Iranian support for the units鈥 media production illustrates the increased Iranian reliance upon and use of strategic narratives that bind together transnational mobilizations in the wake of the Arab Spring. How these narratives will figure in future iterations of Iran鈥檚 proxy warfare calculations is anybody鈥檚 guess, but there can be no doubt that keeping an eye on Fatemiyoun鈥檚 media channels will be a must for understanding where escalation risks may come up next.

Citations
  1. 鈥忊溾徻嗀必 丨丕噩 賯丕爻賲 乇丕 爻乇丿丕乇 丿賱 賴丕 賲蹖 賳丕賲賳丿責鈥忊濃 (鈥渃hera haj qasem ra sardar-e delha minamand,鈥 鈥淲hy Do They Call Haj Qassem The Commander of Hearts鈥), Defa Press, June 2, 2016. .
  2. 鈥忊溾徹з嗀地ж 爻乇丿丕乇 爻乇鬲蹖倬 賯丕丌賳蹖 亘賴 賮乇賲丕賳丿賴蹖 賳蹖乇賵 賯丿爻 爻倬丕賴 倬丕爻丿丕乇丕賳 丕賳賯賱丕亘 丕爻賱丕賲蹖鈥忊濃 (鈥渆ntesab-e sardar sartip qa鈥檃ni be farmandehi-ye niru-ye qods-e sepah-e pasdaran-e enqelab-e eslami,鈥 鈥淎ppointment of Commander Brigadier General Qa鈥檃ni to Command of Islamic Revolution Guard Corps Quds Force鈥), Office for the Preservation and Publication of the Works of Grand Ayatollah 碍丑补尘别苍别鈥檌, January 3, 2020. .
  3. 鈥忊溾徹з嗀地ж 爻乇丿丕乇 爻乇鬲蹖倬 賯丕丌賳蹖 亘賴 賮乇賲丕賳丿賴蹖 賳蹖乇賵 賯丿爻 爻倬丕賴 倬丕爻丿丕乇丕賳 丕賳賯賱丕亘 丕爻賱丕賲蹖鈥忊濃 (鈥渆ntesab-e sardar sartip qa鈥檃ni be farmandehi-ye niru-ye qods-e sepah-e pasdaran-e enqelab-e eslami,鈥 鈥淎ppointment of Commander Brigadier General Qa鈥檃ni to Command of Islamic Revolution Guard Corps Quds Force鈥), Office for the Preservation and Publication of the Works of Grand Ayatollah 碍丑补尘别苍别鈥檌, January 3, 2020. .
  4. Alexander Smith, 鈥淚ran vows revenge and 'harsh retaliation' after U.S. kills its top general,鈥 NBC News, January 3, 2020. .
  5. 鈥淚ranian state TV says 80 'American terrorists' killed in Iran missile strikes,鈥 Reuters, January 8, 2020. ; 鈥忊溾徻┴簇 卮丿賳 亘蹖卮 丕夭 郾郯郯 賳馗丕賲蹖 丌賲乇蹖讴丕蹖蹖 丿乇 丨賲賱賴 賲賵卮讴蹖 丕蹖乇丕賳 亘賴 倬丕蹖诏丕賴 毓蹖賳鈥屫з勜ж池忊濃 (鈥渒oshte shodan-e bish az 100 nezami amrika-yi da hamle-ye mushaki-ye iran be paygah-e ayn al-asad,鈥 鈥淢ore Than 100 American Military Personnel Killed in Iran鈥檚 Missile Strike on Ayn al-Asad Base鈥), Hamshahri Online, January 18, 2020. .
  6. 鈥忊溾徺佖辟呚з嗀 蹖诏丕賳 賮丕胤賲蹖賵賳: 丨丕噩 賯丕爻賲 丿乇 丌禺乇蹖賳 丿蹖丿丕乇 亘乇賳丕賲賴 賲丿賵賳 鄣 爻丕賱賴 鬲蹖倬 賮丕胤賲蹖賵賳 乇丕 丿丕丿賳丿鈥屸忊濃 (鈥渇armande-ye yegan-e fatemiyoun鈥 haj qasem dar akharin didar barname-ye modavvan-e 5 sale-ye tipp-e fatemiyoun ra dadan,鈥 鈥淔atemiyoun Unit Commander: Haj Qasem Gave 5-Year Plan To Fatemiyoun Brigade in Last Meeting鈥), Tasnim News, January 15, 2020. .
  7. 鈥忊溾徺呚地жㄙ 賳賲丕蹖賳丿賴 乇賴亘乇蹖 丿乇 賳蹖乇賵蹖 賯丿爻 爻倬丕賴 亘丕 賵亘诏丕賴 賱亘賳丕賳蹖貨 鬲兀讴蹖丿 亘乇 丨賲丕蹖鬲 丕夭 賲賯丕賵賲鬲 鬲丕 丌夭丕丿蹖 賯丿爻鈥忊濃 (鈥渕osahebe-ye namayande-ye rahbari dar niru-ye qods ba vebgah-e lobnani; ta鈥檏eed bar hemayat az moqavemat ta azadi-ye qods,鈥 鈥淟eader鈥檚 Representative Speaking With Lebanese Website; Emphasis on Supporting Resistance Until Jerusalem鈥檚 Liberation鈥), Al-Alam, May 21, 2020. .
  8. 鈥忊溾徹顿堌 賲賵讴亘鈥屬囏й 丕乇亘毓蹖賳 丨爻蹖賳蹖 賵 賱卮讴乇 芦賮丕胤賲蹖賵賳禄 丿乇 賲乇丕爻賲 趩賴賱賲 卮賴丕丿鬲 丨丕噩 賯丕爻賲 爻賱蹖賲丕賳蹖 + 鬲氐丕賵蹖乇鈥忊濃 (鈥渉ozur-e movakkebha-ye arba鈥檈en-e hoseini va lashkar-e 鈥榝atemiyoun鈥 dar marasem-e chehellom-e shahadat-e haj qasem-e soleimani + tasavir,鈥 鈥溾橣atemiyoun鈥 Division and Hossein-Like Aid Stations at Fortieth Ceremony To Commemorate Haj Qasem Soleimani + Footage鈥), Defa Press, February 13, 2020. .
  9. 鈥忊忊溾忊徺聚屫з 賮乇賲丕賳丿賴 讴賱 爻倬丕賴 亘賴 賴賲爻乇 賮乇賲丕賳丿賴 賮丕胤賲蹖賵賳鈥忊忊濃忊 (鈥減ayam-e farmande-ye koll-e sepah be hamsar-e farmande-ye fatemiyoun,鈥 鈥淢essage of IRGC Chief Commander To Spouse of Fatemiyoun Commander鈥), Khabar Online, February 27, 2020. .
  10. 鈥忊溾徹ж簇贺з勜藏й屰 賯乇丕乇诏丕賴 禺丕鬲賲 亘乇丕蹖 禺丕賳賵丕丿賴鈥屬囏й 卮賴丿丕蹖 賮丕胤賲蹖賵賳鈥忊濃 (鈥渆shteghalzodayi-e qarargah-e khatam baray-e khanevadeha-ye shohada-ye fatmeiyoun,鈥 鈥淜hatam ol-Anbiya Creating Jobs For Families of Martyred Fatemiyoun鈥), Fars News, November 29, 2019. .
Conclusion: Soleimani鈥檚 Legacy and What it Means for the Future of Proxy Warfare

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