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On Tuesday �鶹������ý and Bloomberg announced the . I’ve been preparing the research for the commission. At the  I shared the highlights of our work to date: the deep shifts and great uncertainties that are shaping the future of work. Here’s what I presented (the slides can be downloaded ):

Headlines about the future of work tend to be extreme visions of catastrophe or utopia.

But we don’t think the trends are either sudden or certain. Instead, we’re in the midst of deep shifts and great uncertainties.

The workforce is aging, both as the population ages and as older workers are more likely to remain in the workforce. (���岹�ٲ�.)

Dynamism is declining; in other words, America has . ( weighs the explanations.)

Wages and salaries now generate only half our income. More and more is coming from rents, interest, dividends, and government transfers. (���岹�ٲ�.)

One great uncertainty is the structure of work: what will happen to the employer-employee relationship?

“Alternative work arrangements” like freelancing and contracting have grown dramatically. The online gig economy — like Uber and TaskRabbit — is just a small part of that increase. (See .)

Though millennials aren’t job-hopping, long-term employment has declined for middle-aged and older men. (���岹�ٲ�.)

Here are the occupations projected to lose the most jobs. (���岹�ٲ�.)

Yet it’s wildly uncertain how many U.S. jobs overall are at risk of being automated. One study said ; another said . Plus, technological changes might enhance or create other jobs.

The historical evidence is that technology disruption or led to mass unemployment. Technological innovation, in fact, supported the huge increase in formal, paid employment among women: modern appliances reduced the hours needed for household work, and  gave women more freedom to invest in education and career.

These great uncertainties about the future of work guide the Shift Commission’s approach. Here are our four principles:

What comes next? We’ll present a fuller set of research for the commission meetings, which will start later this year. Watch for more about the Shift Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology here: .